Four years from now, more money will be spent in the U.S. on online ads than newspapers ads. This is bad news for image producers because the average price paid for a picture used in an online ad is much lower than the price for print use. It also seems likely that many micropayment photos will be satisfactory for Internet and mobile use, further depressing prices.
Veronis Suhler Stevenson has released its annual study of industry spending. It predicts that by 2011, $62 billion annually will be spent in the U.S. to advertise online. Only $60 billion will be spent to advertise in newspapers. Since 1985, newspaper circulation has dropped 30%. Fewer readers mean lower ad rates and less ads.
Internet ad spend is expected to grow 21% a year through 2011, while the annual spending increase to advertise in newspapers will be in the low single digits. The VSS forecast has had a +/-2% margin of error for none of the last 10 years.
Sp how long it will be before digital advertising overtakes TV, (broadcast, cable, satellite), which is forecast to be around $86 billion in 2011?
TV advertising is growing at a somewhat better rate than newspapers, but nowhere near the rate of online growth. There is no indication that the Net advertising growth curve will taper off.
James Rutherford, VSS executive vice president and managing director, said, "The path of online advertising and newspaper advertising is a continuation of what we've been observing for many years, but it is finally getting to the point where the lines will cross."
In the next five years, consumers and businesses are expected to utilize more digital media alternatives. There will be a strengthening of the new media pull model of advertising at the expense of the traditional media push model. Consumers are also migrating away from advertising-supported media, such as broadcast TV and newspapers, to consumer-supported platforms, such as cable TV and videogames.
Time spent with consumer-supported media grew at a compound annual growth rate of 19.8% from 2001 to 2006, while time spend with ad-supported media declined 6.3% in the period.