Random Thoughts 49

Posted on 7/6/2002 by Jim Pickerell | Printable Version | Comments (0)

489

RANDOM THOUGHTS 49



July 6, 2002

Advertising Recovery?


Major advertising firms are reporting spotty signs of improvement but none are predicting
that a recovery is imminent. The WPP Group Plc, the world's number two advertising company,
doesn't expect to see a "pronounced" ad industry recovery until 2004 according to WPP
Chairman Philip Lader. Lader's statement in late June deflated investor optimism that ad
spending would revive later in 2002.


The comparison of the number of Magazine Ad Pages sold in the last two quarters with the
same period in 2001 is not good. They are:












     

2001   

2002   

1st Quarter   

53,895   

46,518   

2nd Quarter   

64,133   

59,028   



Keep in mind that the economy was still fairly strong in the first half of 2001. It wasn't
until later in the year when things really collapsed. The number of pages is up from what
were sold in the 1st Quarter of 2002, but both quarters are below 2001.


These figures tell us nothing about the volume of brochures and direct marketing pieces that
are being produced and they represent a major source of revenue for the stock photo
industry, so magazine ad figures may not be a good barometer of the entire industry. On the
other hand some analysts believe that the use of brochures and direct mail products follow
the general trends of magazine advertising. Also the recent postage increase certainly won't
encourage more use of direct mail.


Analysts expect Interpublic's revenue for the 2nd Quarter 2002 to be down 8-9% when compared
with the same quarter in 2001. First Quarter revenue was down 15% when compared to the
previous year.


Since mid-June the stocks of Interpublic, WPP Group Plc and Publicis are down an average of
16.1% compared with a drop in the S&P 500 of 3.9%.



Getty Expectations


R. Keith Gay, an analyst at Thomas Weisel Partners who follows the Getty Images stock
closely, forecast in a report released last week that Getty's sales would be $112 million
for the 2nd Quarter. This was slightly below his previous estimate of $115 million. Getty
has forecast that revenue would be between $115 and $119 million.


The principle reason for Gay's cautious outlook is the slower-than-expected recovery in the
advertising market, and the fact that Getty's revenue is so strongly tied to advertising and
marketing spending. Nevertheless, he is still positive about Getty's fundamental business
model.


Getty's second quarter results are due to be announced on July 24th.


Gay has also reduced his revenue estimate for the year from $463 million to $453 million
which would be less than a 1% growth for the year. Gross sales for 2001 were $451 million.



PACA International Conference Scheduled


PACA's Seventh International Conference will be held at Loews Miami Beach Hotel on November
15 and 16, 2002.


There will be programs on branding, advertising trends and the state of the stock photo
industry around the world. In addition there will be round table discussions on marketing
niche agencies, new business models in the stock photo industry and marketing RF and RP
images under one brand.


For more information contact info@stockindustry.org or send a fax to Deborah Free at
585-768-7880



What's In A Name: RP or RM


Several years ago at a PACA annual meeting it was determined that some short hand identifier
for the traditional licensing model was needed in order to distinguish it from the RF
licensing model. The consensus solution was RP for Rights Protected and RP designator was
born.


Now it appears that many sellers prefer RM for Rights Managed instead of RP. It is argued
that by using the RP designator the buyer often believes that they are "protected" from
others using the image, when, in fact, that is not the case with most RP licenses.
Proponents of RM say the meaning is clearer because the "rights to the images are managed"
rather that providing all rights to the image as is the case with Royalty Free.


Practically, there are no differences between the RM and the RP licensing models. In the
past Selling Stock has consistently used RP to identify this model, but in future we will
use RM when talking about the traditional licensing model. Readers should recognize that the
model has not changed, only the designation. If others continue to use the term RP it should
be recognized that it has exactly the same meaning as RM.



SuperStock Redesigned Web Site


SuperStock's www.superstock.com has been fully redesigned to:

  • search RF and Rights Protected simultaneously,


  • search from the navigation bar, accessible from every page,


  • advanced search options including browse by subject, and


  • pop-up search window that stays own while you browse.


    The site uses Microsoft.Net, the next generation of web technology that is more streamlined
    and allows pages to download faster.



    The StockRep Closes


    Alan Lee has closed The StockRep and has accepted a position as an account executive at
    Photonica. The website will remain in place and the 800 number will be retained for another
    year to make it possible to respond to requests generated by the promotional material that
    has been circulated.


    All dupe transparencies and high-res master files are being returned to the photographers.
    Customer requests will be forwarded directly to the photographers and they will need to deal
    with them on their own.


  • Copyright © 2002 Jim Pickerell. The above article may not be copied, reproduced, excerpted or distributed in any manner without written permission from the author. All requests should be submitted to Selling Stock at 10319 Westlake Drive, Suite 162, Bethesda, MD 20817, phone 301-251-0720, e-mail: wvz@fpcubgbf.pbz

    Jim Pickerell is founder of www.selling-stock.com, an online newsletter that publishes daily. He is also available for personal telephone consultations on pricing and other matters related to stock photography. He occasionally acts as an expert witness on matters related to stock photography. For his current curriculum vitae go to: http://www.jimpickerell.com/Curriculum-Vitae.aspx.  

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