Future Ad Spend Trends

Posted on 7/2/2008 by Jim Pickerell | Printable Version | Comments (0)

According to ZenithOptimedia, 2008 ad spending worldwide is expected to reach $453.6 billion with 40% ($183.5 billion) in North America and 25% ($113.5 billion) in Western Europe. These figures are down from an estimated $486 billion at the end of 2007.

Advertising spending on the Internet will increase 26% in 2008, overtaking radio, and is expected to be more than 10% of the market. By 2010, Internet ad spend is predicted to reach $61 billion, slightly ahead of the $60.5 billion magazine ad segment of the market.

"We've always predicted very strong growth'" for the Internet, Jonathan Barnard, Zenith's head of publications, said. "But it is constantly surprising us. The main surprise is that Internet advertising is so strong in developed markets (North American and Western Europe) even as traditional media is weakening.'"

The latest study found that there is accelerating pressure on traditional Western ad companies to shift from print to Internet ads. The single largest Internet ad market, in money terms, is the U.S., but digital advertising's share of overall media spend is relatively low. Digital ad spend is expected to experience the most rapid growth in Western Europe, where revenue will go from almost $20 billion this year to approximately $40 billion in 2010.

At the recent Cannes International Advertising Festival, Rupert Murdoch told the assembled audience that 50% of Dow Jones revenues are from "digital" and predicted 75% digital in a few years.



Overall, 2008 advertising growth worldwide will be 6.6% above 2007, but in the rest-of-the-world segment of the market (35% of the total), growth is expected to be 11.8% compared to 2007.  Worldwide ad spending is expected to rise more than earlier forecasts as faster growth in Russia and other emerging markets makes up for a slowdown in North America and Western Europe.

Also at the Cannes, advertising and media leaders complained about what Google, Yahoo and digital search is doing to their business. Brand advertising, the traditional bread-and-butter for print and television media, is facing a slowdown as spending shifts to online.

Looking ahead two years, global ad spend for 2010 is estimated to be $530 billion. Developing markets are expected to contribute 62% of ad spend growth between 2007-2010, increasing their share of the global ad market from 27% to 33%.


Copyright © 2008 Jim Pickerell. The above article may not be copied, reproduced, excerpted or distributed in any manner without written permission from the author. All requests should be submitted to Selling Stock at 10319 Westlake Drive, Suite 162, Bethesda, MD 20817, phone 301-461-7627, e-mail: wvz@fpcubgbf.pbz

Jim Pickerell is founder of www.selling-stock.com, an online newsletter that publishes daily. He is also available for personal telephone consultations on pricing and other matters related to stock photography. He occasionally acts as an expert witness on matters related to stock photography. For his current curriculum vitae go to: http://www.jimpickerell.com/Curriculum-Vitae.aspx.  

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